IAEA raises nuclear growth projections, with SMRs taking growing share

Monday, 16 September 2024

The publication of the 44th edition of its forecast - Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 - came on the opening day of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference in Vienna, Austria.

The publication, which breaks down global statistics by region, rather than by country, also includes a low case scenario, which forecasts a 40% increase in capacity to 514 GWe by 2050. The report is the fourth successive year that the projected growth has been increased - the high case scenario is 7% higher than in 2023's report and the low case scenario is 11% higher.

In both projections there is a growing share being taken by small modular reactors (SMRs) - in the low case scenario 6% of the new capacity comes from SMRs, while in the high case scenario 24% - or nearly 140 GWe - of new capacity is forecast to be produced by SMRs. The report projects that overall electricity production, from all sources, will more than double by 2050.

The estimates are developed by considering all operating reactors, possible licence renewals, planned shutdowns "and plausible construction projects foreseen for the next few decades". The low case assumes "current market, technology and resource trends continue and there are few additional changes in explicit laws, policies and regulations affecting nuclear power". The high case includes national policies on climate change but "remains plausible and technically feasible and it is possible that capacity could increase beyond that projected in the high case". 

The IAEA head of planning and economic studies, Henri Paillere, said that among the measures required to meet or exceed the high case projections were supportive national policies, financing, investments in grids, standardisation in the supply chain, regulatory collaboration and global harmonisation, particularly for SMR development.

"Additionally the value of nuclear's service contributions to the power system - reliability, security of supply, low emissions - should be appropriately remunerated," the report says. It also says there remains uncertainty about future demand growth for electricity relating to the digital economy (data centres and artificial intelligence) and electrification of transport but it says that if the "enabling factors" were established the world could be "on the path to achieving the ambitious pledge to triple global nuclear capacity", which was backed by 25 countries and more than 120 companies at COP28.

According to the report, nuclear was the second largest source of low-carbon electricity in 2023, accounting for 9.3% of global electricity production. Hydro is the largest source of low-carbon electricity at 15%, with wind at 8% and solar at 5% in 2023. The projection is for total final energy consumption to fall about 2% by 2050 because of increased electrification and higher efficiency of appliances and processes - the share of elecricity in final energy consumption is forecast to more than double to reach more than 40% by 2050.

The forecasts by region shows the biggest increase in nuclear capacity is forecast to be in the Central and Eastern Asia region:

Region	2023 capacity (GWe)	2050 low case (GWe)	2050 high case (GWe)
North America	109.5	89	228
Latin America and the Caribbean	5.1	8	20
Northern, Western and Southern Europe	93.8	69	135
Eastern Europe	54.5	66	112
Africa	1.9	10	24
Western Asia	4.4	17	32
Southern Asia	10.5	45	88
Central and Eastern Asia	91.9	207	297
South Eastern Asia	0	3	11
Oceana	0	0	2

Paillere said there are currently 31 countries operating nuclear power with another 30 "embarking countries" at different stages, including three at advanced stages of construction - Turkey, Bangladesh and Egypt, and said: "Over the last four years there's been an increasingly positive outlook for nuclear power by 2050 due to a number of drivers which include concerns for energy security and affordability, the need to address increased demand for clean energy, the issue of climate change ... there are a number of publications and events that have taken place recently that indicate nuclear power is an important part of the pathway towards new zero." New technologies such as SMRs also "contribute to the increased interest in nuclear power", he added.

Paillure said that in all the projections, as well as new-build plans, long term operation and power-uprates were also important factors and noted the ambition of the high case forecast - saying it would mean an average of about 25 GWe of new capacity each year, compared with the 5.7 GWe average capacity added over the past five years.

He was also asked about whether there was any progress on the storage of nuclear waste, and said this was one of the challenges/enabling factors for the future scenarios, and noted the good progress made in the deep geological repository in Finland "with a number of other countries following this approach".

Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, in his address to the opening plenary session of the IAEA's 68th General Conference, talked about the role nuclear energy was playing as a clean source of energy, saying it produced about a quarter of clean energy in the world today and "we have come a long way from not being recognised in international conferences" to COP28 where there was a "consensus from all members there that nuclear energy should be accelerated".

He also said that the IAEA continued its presence at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and noted his recent visit to the Kursk nuclear power plant "where the situation is serious" and said the IAEA would continue in its nuclear safety and security efforts, saying "a peaceful nuclear power plant should never be attacked under any circumstances, irrespective of where the nuclear power plants are situated".